A predictive model for social participation of middle-aged and older adult stroke survivors: the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

Abstract

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for evaluating the social participation in the community middle-aged and older adult stroke survivors. The predictive model is based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which focused on individuals aged 45 years or older. The study utilized subjects from the CHARLS 2015 and 2018 wave, eighteen factors including socio-demographic variables, behavioral and health status, mental health parameters, were analyzed in this study. To ensure the reliability of the model, the study cohort was randomly split into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to identify the most effective predictors of the model through a 10-fold cross-validation. The logistic regression model was employed to investigate the factors associated with social participation in stroke patients. A nomogram was constructed to develop a prediction model. Calibration curves were used to assess the accuracy of the nomogram model. The model's performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 1,239 subjects with stroke from the CHARLS database collected in 2013 and 2015 wave were eligible in the final analysis. Out of these, 539 (43.5%) subjects had social participation. The model considered nineteen factors, the LASSO regression selected eleven factors, including age, gender, residence type, education level, pension, insurance, financial dependence, physical function (PF), self-reported healthy,cognition and satisfaction in the prediction model. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed a certain extent good concordance and accuracy. The AUC values of training and internal validation sets were 0.669 (95%CI 0.631-0.707) and 0.635 (95% CI 0.573-0.698), respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow test values were p = 0.588 and p = 0.563. Calibration curves showed agreement between the nomogram model and actual observations. ROC and DCA indicated that the nomogram had predictive performance. The nomogram constructed in this study can be used to evaluate the probability of social participation in middle-aged individuals and identify those who may have low social participation after experiencing a stroke.