A predictive model for gypsy moth population dynamics with model validation

Abstract

A simple model for gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), population dynamics is presented. Comparison with data from the Melrose Highlands study shows the model to exhibit the same qualitative and quantitative behavior as the data. Predictions are made about future outbreaks using only a portion of the field data to fit the model parameters. Comparison of these predictions with the rest of the data shows excellent agreement in both timing and magnitude of future outbreaks for times on the order of 10 years. This work represents the first model for gypsy moth population dynamics which is capable of accurate quantitative predictions over this time period.