A predictive model for Covid-19 spread - with application to eight US states and how to end the pandemic.

Abstract

A compartmental model is proposed to predict the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) spread. It considers: detected and undetected infected populations, social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus reinfection. This model, consisting of seven coupled equations, has eight coefficients which are evaluated by fitting data for eight US states that make up 43% of the US population. The evolution of Covid-19 is fairly similar among the states: variations in contact and undetected recovery rates remain below 5%; however, variations are larger in recovery rate, death rate, reinfection rate, sequestration adherence and release rate from sequestration. Projections based on the current situation indicate that Covid-19 will become endemic. If lockdowns had been kept in place, the number of deaths would most likely have been significantly lower in states that opened up. Additionally, we predict that decreasing contact rate by 10%, or increasing testing by approximately 15%, or doubling lockdown compliance (from the current ~15% to ~30%) will eradicate infections in Texas within a year. Extending our fits for all of the US states, we predict about 11 million total infections (including undetected), and 8 million cumulative confirmed cases by 1 November 2020.