A Predictive Human Health Risk Assessment of Non-Choleraic Vibrio spp. during Hurricane-Driven Flooding Events in Coastal South Carolina, USA

Alexandra M Frank,Diane S Henshel,Mariana G Cains

doi:10.3390/atmos12020269

Abstract

Densely populated, low-lying coastal areas are most at-risk for negative impacts from increasing intensity of storm-induced flooding. Due to the effects of global warming and subsequent climate change, coastal temperatures and the magnitude of storm-induced flooding are projected to increase, creating a hospitable environment for the aquatic Vibrio spp. bacteria. A relative risk model analysis was used to determine which census block groups in coastal South Carolina have the highest risk of Vibrio spp. exposure using storm surge flooding as a proxy. Coastal block groups with dense vulnerable sub-populations exposed to storm surge have the highest relative risk, while inland block groups away from riverine-mediated storm surge have the lowest relative risk. As Vibriosis infections may be extremely severe or even deadly, the best methods of infection control will be regular standardized coastal and estuarine water monitoring for Vibrio spp. to enable more informed and timely public health advisories and help prevent future exposure.

Highlights

Climate change is projected to increase atmospheric and oceanic temperatures globally with increased microvariability, in turn affecting precipitation patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and natural disasters, and accelerating sea level rise (SLR) due to melting glaciers and seawater expansion [1,2]
This paper models the predicted overlap between potential exposure to Vibrio spp. and denser, vulnerable populations based on age throughout coastal South Carolina utilizing the relative risk assessment model [29]
Evaluating the conditions for Vibrio spp. growth in the South Carolina coastal waters indicates that summer hydrological conditions are conducive to Vibrio spp

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is projected to increase atmospheric and oceanic temperatures globally with increased microvariability, in turn affecting precipitation patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and natural disasters, and accelerating sea level rise (SLR) due to melting glaciers and seawater expansion [1,2]. The effects of climate change are already occurring in the United States as manifested by the increased number and severity of hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation events. The air and water warming leads to melting of large ice formations (e.g., glaciers) which is leading to global ocean mean water level increases, known as SLR [4]. As the sea level rises, the 40% of United States citizens living in dense urban coastal areas will be affected by flooding and inundation that can negatively affect living conditions and human health. SLR can increase the prevalence of disease pathogens, such as Vibrio spp., further inland from the coastline [5,6]

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