A prediction model to forecast passenger flow based on flight arrangement in airport terminals

Abstract

Passenger flow plays an important role in the indoor environment and energy consumption of airport terminals. In this paper, field investigations were carried out in four typical airport terminals with different scales and operation states to reveal the characteristics of passenger flow. A prediction model is established to forecast passengers’ distribution in the main areas of an airport terminal based on its flight arrangement. The results indicate the dislocation peaks of passenger numbers in these areas, due to the airport's departure process. The peak time interval is about 30 min between the check-in hall and the security check area, and 60–80 min between the check-in hall and the departure hall. RD value (i.e., the ratio of the actual passenger number in a certain area to the design value) is used to describe this peak shifting feature. When the annual passenger throughput of an airport terminal reaches or even exceeds its design value, the total peak RD value is normally 0.6–0.8. For the airport affected by COVID-19, the peak RD is only 0.2, which reflects the decline in terminal passenger numbers during the pandemic. This research provides useful insight into the characteristics of passenger flow in airport terminals, and is beneficial for their design and operation.