Abstract
The probability integral method is the most commonly used mining subsidence prediction model, but it is only applicable to ordinary geological mining conditions. When the loose layer in the geological mining conditions where the mining face is located is too thick, many inaccurate phenomena will occur when the movement deformation value is predicted by the probability integral method. The most obvious one is the problem that the predicted value converges too fast compared with the measured value in the edge of the sinking basin. In 2012, Wang and Deng proposed a modified model of probability integral method for the marginal errors in the model of probability integral method and verified the feasibility of the method through examples. In this paper, the method is applied to the prediction of surface movement under thick and loose layers after modified. Through practical application, it is found that due to the angle between the working face and the horizontal direction, the average mining depth in the strike direction is different from the average mining depth in the inclined direction, and the main influence radius of the two main sections are often. Therefore, based on this problem, this paper divides the main influence radius into trend and tendency and adjusts the parameters in the model to find the rules of the parameters. The original method uses a dynamic scale factor to adjust the predicted shape of the graph by adjusting the sinking coefficient. This study is aimed to set the scale factor to 0.5 and fix the value of the sinking factor, and propose to adjust the integral range and then adjust the shape of the graph to make it more in line with the actual measurement situation.
Highlights
As one of the main energy sources for human life and economic development, coal occupies a very important position in the world energy consumption structure
It is verified by an example that this method has a certain effect to improve the phenomenon that the probability integral method converges too fast at the edge of the subsidence basin compared with the actual subsidence
It can be seen that the original model regards the surface movement deformation as a weighted superposition of the effects of two mining units with different main influence radius, which has an optimization effect on the problem that the probability integral method converges too fast at the edge of the subsidence basin compared with the actual subsidence
Summary
As one of the main energy sources for human life and economic development, coal occupies a very important position in the world energy consumption structure. With the continuous promotion of global clean energy, the proportion of coal in primary energy continues to decline. Coal is still the main component of the world’s primary energy consumption structure (29.2%) (“Geo-informatics,” 2019). As the world’s largest energy producer and consumer, coal has always dominated the primary energy structure in China. Coal can drive the country’s economic growth, but the problem of irreversible impact on the surface during mining and even for a long time after mining cannot be ignored. Because the underground coal seam is artificially destroyed, the original stress balance of the rock layer is destroyed, the phenomenon of surface subsidence and movement occurs when the impact is propagated to the surface, resulting in geological disasters such as damage to landmark buildings and water accumulation. It is important to predict the surface movement and deformation that it may cause before mining
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