A prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus based on steroid hormonal changes in early and mid-down syndrome screening: A multicenter longitudinal study

Abstract

BackgroundSteroid hormones (SH) during pregnancy are associated with the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Early and mid-Down syndrome screening is used to assess the risk of Down syndrome in the fetus. It is unclear whether changes in SH during this period can be used as an early predictor of GDM. MethodsThis study was a multicenter, longitudinal cohort study. GDM is diagnosed by an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation. We measured SH levels at early and mid-Down syndrome screening, respectively. Based on the SH changes, logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model for GDM. Finally, evaluated the model’s predictive performance by creating a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and performing external validation. ResultsThis study enrolled 193 pregnant women (discovery cohort, n = 157; validation cohort, n = 36). SH changes occur dynamically after pregnancy. At early Down syndrome screening, only cortisol (F) (p < 0.05, 95 % CI 4780.95–46083.68) was elevated in GDM. At mid-Down syndrome screening, free testosterone (FT) (p < 0.01, 95 % CI 0.10–0.55) and estradiol (E2) (p < 0.05, 95 % CI 203.55–1784.78) were also significantly elevated. There were significant differences in the rates of change in E2 (Fold change (FC) = 1.3425, p = 0.0072), albumin (ALB) (FC=1.5759, p = 0.0117), and dihydrotestosterone (DHT) (FC=-2.1234, p = 0.0165) between GDM and no-GDM. Stepwise logistic regression analysis resulted in the best predictive model, including six variables (Δweight, ΔF, Δcortisone (E), ΔE2, Δprogesterone (P), ΔDHT). The area under the curve for this model was 0.791, and for the external validation cohort, it was 0.799. ConclusionsA GDM prediction model can be constructed using SH measures during early and mid-Down syndrome screening.