A Prediction Model for Battery Electric Bus Energy Consumption in Transit

Hatem Abdelaty,Moataz Mohamed

doi:10.3390/en14102824

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of vehicular, operational, topological, and external parameters on the energy consumption (EC) of battery-electric buses (BEBs) in transit operation. Furthermore, the study develops a data-driven prediction model for BEB energy consumption in transit operation that considers these four parameters. A Simulink energy model is developed to estimate the EC rates and validated using the Altoona’s test real-world data. A full-factorial experiment is used to generate 907,199 scenarios for BEB operation informed by 120 real-world drive cycles. A multivariate multiple regression model was developed to predict BEB’s EC. The regression model explained more than 96% of the variation in the EC of the BEBs. The results show the significant impacts of road grade, the initial state of charge, road condition, passenger loading, driver aggressiveness, average speed, HVAC, and stop density on BEB’s energy consumption, each with a different magnitude. The study concluded that the optimal transit profile for BEB operation is associated with rolling grade and relatively lower stop density (one to two stops/km).

Highlights

The transportation system has been contributing to a high share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past two decades [1,2] Currently, transportation contributes to approximately 20% of global GHG emissions
The present study aims at quantifying the association between the vehicular, operational, topological, and external parameters of the transit network and the energy consumption of battery-electric buses (BEBs)
We developed a simulation model to predict BEB’s energy consumption using a MATLAB Simulink platform following the approach advised by [2,56], and taking into consideration the block designs used in the advanced vehicle simulator (ADVISOR)

Summary

Introduction

The transportation system has been contributing to a high share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past two decades [1,2] Currently, transportation contributes to approximately 20% of global GHG emissions. Electricity is a clean source of energy (depending on generation), with the potential of net-zero GHG emissions [3,4]. Electricity generation is being shifted to more clean and renewable sources [5]. Electric mobility is considered a better alternative to reduce the transportation carbon footprint. In this respect, the electrification of transportation systems is at the forefront of transportation researchers and transportation agencies. Electric bus (e-Bus) transit systems provide avenues to reduce GHG emissions and other advantages such as reducing noise and increasing energy efficiency [7,8]. Before phasing out diesel buses, it is crucial for governments, transit providers, and utility companies to understand the impact of an all-electric fleet on the existing energy infrastructure [9,10,11,12]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion