A Predator-Prey Model with an Application to Lake Victoria Fisheries

Abstract

Greater complexity in renewable resource models is achieved by acknowledging that species interact through a predator-prey relationship in which both species are harvested. The price of greater complexity is that traditional concepts, such as maximum sustained yield (MSY), have to be revised dramatically. Moreover, having chosen greater complexity, fishery biologists and other researchers must choose an explicit value for each fish, a rate of exchange of one species for every other species. Policy makers and social scientists in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda with a keen interest in Lake Victoria fisheries regard the resource as a tool for furthering socioeconomic goals, such as foreign exchange earnings, employment for women, and nutrition. Comparative analysis allows policy makers to understand the consequences of choosing these goals in addition to economically efficient resource use. Foreign exchange earnings, employment for women, and healthy people are other goals promulgated by Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda in the management of Lake Victoria Fisheries. The conflicts among social goals are evident in the bioeconomic predator-prey model: a goal favoring a particular species reduces the sustainable harvest of another species. Data from Kenya are used to estimate the population dynamics equations.