A Precrash Scenario Analysis Comparing Safety Performance across Autonomous Vehicle Driving Modes

Abstract

Precrash scenario analysis for autonomous vehicles (AVs) is critical for improving the safety of autonomous driving, yet the scenario differences between different driving modes are unexplored. Using the precrash scenario typology of the USDOT, this study classified 484 AV crash reports from the California DMV from 2018 to 2022, revealing the differences in the scenario proportions of the three modes of autonomous driving, driving takeover, and conventional driving in 34 types of scenarios. The results showed that there were significant differences in the proportion of six scenarios such as “Lead AV stopped” and “Lead AV decelerating” among different driving modes p<0.05. To analyze the relative risk of different driving modes in specific scenarios, an evaluation model of the risk level of AV precrash scenarios was established using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The findings indicated that ​ autonomous driving has the highest risk rating and poses the greatest danger in Scenario 1, while conventional driving is associated with Scenario 2b, and driving takeover corresponds to Scenario 3, respectively. In-depth analysis of the crash characteristics and causes of these three typical scenarios was conducted, and suggestions were made from the perspectives of autonomous driving system (ADS) and drivers to reduce the severity of crashes. This study compared precrash scenarios of AV by different driving modes, providing references for the optimization of ADS and the safety of human-machine codriving.