A Pragmatic Approach to the Economic Assessment of Green Synthetic Methane Power in the Baltics

Abstract

The synthesis of methane from hydrogen and carbon dioxide creates an energy resource that is suitable for long-term storage. Once this process is powered by renewable electricity, it produces a clean fuel for producing electricity and heat and supports large-scale renewable energy deployment, energy transition and climate change mitigation. This paper proposes a pragmatic approach to assessing the economic potential of synthetic methane-based power. Today, natural gas plays an important role in the Baltic region due to the existing infrastructure, which includes a transmission and distribution pipeline network, gas power plants and a large underground storage reservoir. Replacing natural gas with synthetic methane would fulfil carbon emission reduction ambitions. In this paper, we simulate electricity producers’ actions at market conditions and consider the generation portfolio in the Baltics and the interconnections with Scandinavia and Poland operating in the NORDPOOL electricity market. As a result of these calculations, we obtain the volume of the synthetic gas, the production costs, the volume of gas storage, the installed capacity of the gas power plant, and the investments required to ensure energy transition and system adequacy. These results are essential for the informed decisions made by policymakers, investors and system operators.