A Practical Metric to Evaluate the Ramp Events of Wind Generating Resources to Enhance the Security of Smart Energy Systems

Abstract

The energy industry, primarily based on the use of fossil fuels (e.g., coal and oil) is rapidly shifting toward renewable energy for securing sustainable resources. Thus, preparing for large wind power ramp events is essential to retain reliable and secure power systems. This study proposed a new statistical approach to predict wind power ramp events, and evaluated the performance of prediction. The empirical data, which is the observed wind power output data and wind speed data from Taebaek (South Korea) were used for analyzing ramp events and for evaluation. Based on the data analysis, a practical metric for evaluating the performance of wind power ramp events forecasting was developed and presented in detail. Notably, the accuracy of forecasting was evaluated through various metrics, whereas the normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) analysis demonstrated ≤ 10% values for all the analyzed months. In addition, a system review was conducted to check if the methodology suggested in this study has helped enhance the security of power systems. The results show that evaluating and considering the ramp events can improve the accuracy of wind power output forecasting which can secure the smart energy systems.