A power development planning for Vietnam under the CO2 emission reduction targets

Abstract

The paper guides three scenarios of power planning for Vietnam for the 2018–2030 period under CO2 emission targets. The analysis employs a model of energy expansion in the form of an optimization problem with the objective of the discounted entire system cost minimization. With each CO2 emission allowance, a scenario of the newly installed capacity structure will be carried out. The results indicate that instead of 42.6% coal-fired installed capacity as indicated in the National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011–2020 period with the Vision to 2030 (known as PDP VII), by 2030 the share of this power source will be around 29% (8% CO2 reduction scenario) and 19% (25% CO2 reduction scenario). Also, the lower emission sources such as hydro, wind, and solar power will be a priority for investment in the next decade. There is an existence of coal-fired power plants replacement by natural gas stations.