A POSSIBLE IMPACT OF SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN THE CAUCASIAN MINERAL WATERS ZONE

Abstract

This paper analyzes a possible impact of scenario earthquakes in the zones of high seismic hazard in order to justify measures for ensuring population safety by the example of the southern Stavropol krai area. Over the past twenty years, the Central CisCaucasus region shows elevated seismicity based on the data recorded by the Geophysical Survey RAS network, reporting the occurrence of seismic events within a wide range of magnitudes, М≥1. One of the last felt events with mb = 4.4 occurred in the studied area on April 1, 2023, producing shaking intensity of 3 to 4 grades on the MSK-64 scale in large resort cities of the region. The parameters for the scenario events are based on the results of detailed seismic zoning (DSZ) and review seismic zoning (RSZ-2016) obtained by the Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS. The Extremum system was used to assess felt effects in resort centers located in the southern Stavropol krai. We analyzed the influence of seismic intensity propagation and the parameters of macroseismic field equation on the assessed impact of the scenario earthquakes. Special attention was paid to the depths of strong and moderate events in the considered area of the Northern Caucasus and to the orientation of macroseismic isoseismals. Pre-calibration of the Extremum system loss models is recommended. Estimates of possible simulated damage due to scenario earthquakes with M=6.0 and M = 5.0 for individual large resort cities of the Kavminvody zone are given. The results can be used in the development of both preventive measures and response plans in case of possible events in the region.