A possible contribution of carbon capture, geological utilization, and storage in the Chinese crude steel industry for carbon neutrality

Abstract

The steel production industry faces tremendous pressure from carbon emission peaks and carbon neutrality targets. CO2 capture, geological utilization, and storage (CCUS) is crucial for CO2 mitigation in fossil-fuel-based industries at scale. Here, an integrated techno-economic assessment model is built to assess the potential of CCUS retrofitting in the crude steel industry. According to this assessment, the total CO2 emissions from 277 crude steel manufacturers represent about 1.76 billion tons. This systematic evaluation provides preliminary answers to critical questions, such as the factory inventory suitable for CCUS retrofitting, matched geological sites, CO2 mitigation magnitude, and related cost characteristics. Furthermore, the contribution of CCUS to the carbon neutralization of the crude steel industry is predicted. With a 60% and 85% net mitigation rate, more than 53% and 82% of CO2 emissions (942 Mt and 1466 Mt/a) in the crude steel plants can be mitigated with levelized costs of less than 60 USD/t. Suitable plants are mainly distributed in regions in or near the Bohai Bay, Junggar, Jianghan, and Ordos basins. The mitigation potential model predicts that the contribution of CCUS will be in the range of 17.6%–56.5% depending on carbon price or supporting policy, and the cumulative cost will be in the range of 189–633 billion USD. The stochastic analysis shows that the fraction of cumulative CO2 mitigation follows the normal distribution of N (39%, 3.2%), and the related incremental cost follows N (305, 39) billion USD. CCUS could greatly help green transition and the sustainable development of the Chinese steel industry.