A population-based analysis of increasing rates of suicide mortality in Japan and South Korea, 1985-2010.

Sun Y Jeon,Ryan K Masters,Eric N Reither

doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3020-2

Abstract

BackgroundIn the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most OECD member states. Two notable exceptions are Japan and South Korea, where suicide mortality has increased by 20 % and 280 %, respectively.MethodsPopulation and suicide mortality data were collected through national statistics organizations in Japan and South Korea for the period 1985 to 2010. Age, period of observation, and birth cohort membership were divided into five-year increments. We fitted a series of intrinsic estimator age-period-cohort models to estimate the effects of age-related processes, secular changes, and birth cohort dynamics on the rising rates of suicide mortality in the two neighboring countries.ResultsIn Japan, elevated suicide rates are primarily driven by period effects, initiated during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. In South Korea, multiple factors appear to be responsible for the stark increase in suicide mortality, including recent secular changes, elevated suicide risks at older ages in the context of an aging society, and strong cohort effects for those born between the Great Depression and the aftermath of the Korean War.ConclusionIn spite of cultural, demographic and geographic similarities in Japan and South Korea, the underlying causes of increased suicide mortality differ across these societies—suggesting that public health responses should be tailored to fit each country’s unique situation.

Highlights

In the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) member states
In spite of cultural, demographic and geographic similarities in Japan and South Korea, the underlying causes of increased suicide mortality differ across these societies—suggesting that public health responses should be tailored to fit each country’s unique situation
To better understand increasing rates of suicide mortality in Japan and South Korea, this study extends previous research in three ways: First, whereas some prior research has focused on the effect of one temporal factor such as age [6] or secular changes [8] on suicide in these countries, we analyzed the distinct effects of all three time-related demographic factors on suicide in Japan and South Korea by applying the intrinsic estimator (IE)— an innovative method with desirable statistical properties for age-period-cohort (APC) modeling [11, 12]— to suicide mortality rates

Summary

Introduction

In the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most OECD member states. Two notable exceptions are Japan and South Korea, where suicide mortality has increased by 20 % and 280 %, respectively. Rates of suicide mortality have steadily declined among most member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [1]. As a result of these trends, South Korea and Japan exhibit the two highest rates of suicide mortality among all OECD countries. A small group of studies has evaluated the impact of specific social changes on increasing suicide rates in Japan and South Korea. These studies have detected associations between suicide and divorce rates [6], changing patterns of marriage [7] and the Asian economic crisis that impacted both Japan and South Korea in the late 1990s [8]

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Conclusion