A Political Overview Of Southeast Asia

Abstract

In 1991 the strategic changes produced by the end of the Cold War and the enfeeble ment, then the disintegration, of the Soviet Union continued to have a profound influence on the international politics of Southeast Asia. The effects were partic ularly visible on the former front lines of Cold War confrontations in and around Indochina: there was a settlement of the Cambodian conflict, normalization of relations between China and Vietnam, and rapprochement between Vietnam and the states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). However, there was also more unease about the future balance of power in the Western Pacific, and in particular whether the U.S. military presence and the U.S.-Japan security partnership would continue over the longer term. More attention was being paid to possible new regional institutions and forms of co-operation to deal with the changing strategic and economic environment. Yet, except for the communist insurgency in the Philippines and the ethnic rebellions in Myanmar, 1991 saw Southeast Asia at peace for the first time since the end of World War II. Near-term prospects for peace and security looked better than at any time since then. While there were still many unresolved problems ? both interstate, including territorial disputes, and domestic ? which potentially could erupt into conflict, they looked less menacing or immediate than the sorts of secur ity threats the region had lived with for many years before. However, if there was more confidence among governments in the region about security, it was cautious and qualified in nature. Because of the new unease about the longer-term balance of power in the region and the fragility of the peace in Cambodia, there was no euphoria over the end of the Cold War and the settlement of the Cambodian conflict. Rather, there was a hard-headed realism among most governments that the world still remained a dangerous place, as illustrated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and ethnic and nationality conflicts in Yugoslavia and the former Soviet republics. In fact, conflicts could erupt more easily in many parts of the world in the absence of the constraints imposed by the Cold War. There were also new challenges. One was how to manage the rising expectations among the middle class and the younger generation for greater participation in the political process. The growing opposition in 1991 to military domination in Thai land and signs of restiveness in Indonesia illustrated this problem. Another, not unrelated, issue was how to deal with the stronger concerns in the world community, especially in the West, about human rights and democracy. These values received