A political model using influence diagrams and the Analytic Hierarchy Process: the Camp David negotiations

Abstract

Quantitative models and computer-based decision analysis are rarely used to support complex political decision processes. Dynamic models that will encompass both the objective and subjective factors affecting any political decision are needed, and decision makers must be able to understand and interact with computer-based support systems. This paper demonstrates how microcomputer-based decision analysis and decision support techniques can be used to structure and simulate a complex political decision process in the area of international negotiations. The decision analysis tool of influence diagrams and the mathematical technique of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are applied to the Camp David negotiations between Egypt and Israel. The theory of influence diagrams is discussed and the influence diagram analysis software package DAVID is used to create the logic structure of the Camp David negotiations based upon the historical record. The theory of AHP is discussed and the AHP-based software package EXPERT CHOICE is used to replicate the subjective value judgments of the Camp David negotiators. An interaction scheme between the two methods is constructed which enables negotiators to explore the logic of a negotiating problem, to promote a common understanding of the impending negotiations, and to explore trade-offs between alternative proposals.