A Point-based Mortality Prediction System for Older Adults with Diabetes

Abstract

The mortality prediction models for the general diabetic population have been well established, but the corresponding elderly-specific model is still lacking. This study aims to develop a mortality prediction model for the elderly with diabetes. The data used for model establishment were derived from the nationwide adult health screening program in Taiwan in 2007–2010, from which we applied a 10-fold cross-validation method for model construction and internal validation. The external validation was tested on the MJ health screening database collected in 2004–2007. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to predict five-year mortality for diabetic patients ≥65 years. A total of 220,832 older subjects with diabetes were selected for model construction, of whom 23,241 (10.5%) died by the end of follow-up (December 31, 2011). The significant predictors retained in the final model included age, gender, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, leukocyte count, liver and renal function, total cholesterol, hemoglobin, albumin, and uric acid. The Harrell’s C in the development, internal-, and external-validation datasets were 0.737, 0.746, and 0.685, respectively. We established an easy-to-use point-based model that could accurately predict five-year mortality risk in older adults with diabetes.