A Planning Model of Pharmaceutical Needs for Mass Gatherings at Public Special Events

Abstract

The mass gatherings may be the result of a special public event or a spontaneous unplanned event. A special public event is a planned and organized activity which will place 10,000 or more estimated participants in a defined geographical area, gathered at a specific location for a defined period of time where access by emergency vehicles might be delayed. Historically, planning for an event provides the prevention of risk, injury, suffering, or death that may occur at public events, however, the continuous system improvement includes expenses in order to reduce the costs by avoiding waste of resources. The aim of this work was to verify the usefulness of a formula for estimating the probable number of patients to be treated in field and to assess their needs in a special event for 50th anniversary of the Italian aerobatic team “Frecce Tricolori” air show September 11-12, 2010 Rivolto – Italy. We have developed, from these data, the following formula to calculate the number of people needed to treat and their pharmaceutical needs. Results: The number of attendees was lower than expected number of approximately 20% for a total of about 320,000 people. 174 patients (about 0.45% of the people) required medical treatment: 30 people less than expected (14.7% overestimation). Of these, 58 (above 33%) required emergency treatment in field (8% less than expected). The mathematical model adopted was appropriate and helpful in preventing possible shortages or waste of drugs.