A pilot study on the possible impacts of sea level rise on East China

Abstract

The possible global sea level rise and its magnitude in the next century induced by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are briefly discussed. The rates of crustal sinking, ground surface aggradation, and sediment compaction which might give rise to the regional characteristics of relative sea level (RSL) changes, are studied in detail. Attention is focused on the following problems that are closely associated to the sea level rise in the next century: 1) the flood susceptibility of the low-lying East China plains in the next century and its historical evidences, 2) the frequency of disastrous floods and storm surges, 3) the aggradational rate and the potential danger to the dikes along the Changjiang River's lower reaches and 4) the salt water intrusion and the water quality in the Changjiang River estuary. The study shows that the adverse impacts would be very great even if only the lower estimate of sea-level rise in the next century is considered. Therefore, comprehensive research must be conducted and decision must be made to cope with the approaching sealevel rise.