A Pilot Application of Regional Scale Risk Assessment to the Forestry Management of the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed, Oregon

Abstract

ABSTRACT An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of study for the U.S. Forest Service through the Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) project. In the study, a range of stressors, habitats, and endpoints were identified from previous studies in the watershed, and endpoints were determined from meeting with the primary stakeholder, the U.S. Forest Service. These endpoints were focused around the historic range of variability (HRV) defined for the area. The relative risk model (RRM) incorporating a Monte Carlo analysis was used as the analysis tool. The risk model output showed the HRV fire regime was the endpoint most at risk. The results of this analysis were compared to the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest prioritization of watershed restoration analysis. The RRM demonstrated similar results but with a better accounting for uncertainty. From this trial the RRM has proven to be a potential management tool for forestry management.