Abstract
Whilst the properties of decision regret have been widely explored in experimental and game theoretic studies, the empirical features of regret from large-scale ‘binary decision’ national events in practice have garnered less scrutiny. This study is an empirical investigation of novel survey data reporting ‘Brexit’ voting choices and expressions of a desire to change voting choices post-referendum. We investigate if Leave voters are more or less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or abstained and then identify the particular characteristics of those who regret their vote choice. A large-scale pan-European survey is used to capture citizens’ perceptions of the European Union containing 17,147 interviews of adults from 15 EU member states. Using responses from UK citizens ( n = 1500), focus is directed to the vote choice for the ‘Brexit’ referendum and the corresponding choice if the referendum were held ‘today’. Probit regression estimation identifies the key differences in the characteristics of those who expressed regret by indicating a desire to change voting choices. Results show that knowledge of EU funding policies, permanence of residential location, population size of the local area, educational attainment, employment status and income are key drivers for regretting the referendum voting decision.
Highlights
Introduction and contextThe properties of decision regret have been widely explored in experimental and game theoretic work
That UK sub-sample were asked about their vote in the 2016 referendum and what would they vote if the referendum were held ‘today’. Those who changed their mind and regretted their decision could be identified and their general characteristics discerned. This novel data allows us to investigate if Leave voters are more or less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or abstained from voting
Did binary referendum voters anticipate regret and take account of it in their referendum choice in their desire to eliminate or minimise the possibility? are Leave voters less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or those who abstained from voting? If so, what are the particular income and demographic characteristics of those who regret their vote choice?
Summary
Introduction and contextThe properties of decision regret have been widely explored in experimental and game theoretic work (see, e.g. Schlag and Zapechelnyuk, 2012; Sautua, 2017). Are Leave voters less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or those who abstained from voting?
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