A Photovoltaic Power Prediction Approach Based on Data Decomposition and Stacked Deep Learning Model

Abstract

Correctly anticipating PV electricity production may lessen stochastic fluctuations and incentivize energy consumption. To address the intermittent and unpredictable nature of photovoltaic power generation, this article presents an ensemble learning model (MVMD-CLES) based on the whale optimization algorithm (WOA), variational mode decomposition (VMD), convolutional neural network (CNN), long and short-term memory (LSTM), and extreme learning machine (ELM) stacking. Given the variances in the spatiotemporal distribution of photovoltaic data and meteorological features, a multi-branch character extraction iterative mixture learning model is proposed: we apply the MWOA algorithm to find the optimal decomposition times and VMD penalty factor, and then divide the PV power sequences into sub-modes with different frequencies using a two-layer algorithmic structure to reconstruct the obtained power components. The primary learner is CNN–BiLSTM, which is utilized to understand the temporal and spatial correlation of PV power from information about the weather and the output of photovoltaic cells, and the LSTM learns the periodicity and proximity correlation of the power data and obtains the corresponding component predictions. The second level is the secondary learner—the output of the first layer is learned again using the ELM to attenuate noise and achieve short-term prediction. In different case studies, regardless of weather changes, the proposed method is provided with the best group of consistency and constancy, with an average RMSE improvement of 12.08–39.14% over a single-step forecast compared to other models, the average forecast RMSE increased by 5.71–9.47% for the first two steps.