A Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Load Forecasting in Smart Grid

Abstract

With the rapid increase in the world’s population, the global electricity demand has increased drastically. Therefore, it is required to adopt efficient energy management mechanisms. Since the energy consumption trends are rather dynamic. Therefore, precise energy demand estimation and short and/or long-term forecasting results with higher accuracy are required to develop the optimization and control mechanism. Consequently, the machine learning (ML) techniques along with distributed demand response programs are being adopted to predict the future energy demand requirement with satisfactory results. In this paper, different state-of-the-art ML algorithms such as logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), decision tree classifier (DTC), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and neural networks (NNs), have been implemented to analyze their performance. The main objective of this paper is to present a comparative analysis of ML algorithms for short-term load forecasting (STLF) regarding accuracy and forecast error. Based on the implementation and analysis, we have identified that, among other algorithms, the DTC provides comparatively better results. Therefore, we devised the enhanced DTC (EDTC) by integrating fitting function, loss function, and gradient boosting in DTC mathematical model for fine-tuning the control variables. The implementation results show that the proposed EDTC algorithm provides better forecast results (i.e., 99.9 % recall, 100% F1, 100% precision, 99.21 % training accuracy, and 99.70% testing accuracy.)