A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget

Sonja Simon,Mengzhu Xiao,Carina Harpprecht,Thomas Pregger,Hedda Gardian,Shima Sasanpour

doi:10.3390/su14021025

Abstract

We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050.

Highlights

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the Paris agreement submitted by countries are far from sufficient to prevent temperature increase beyond 1.5 ◦ C [1].One reason is that even though we are comparatively certain about the limitations of the remaining global carbon budget [2], no agreement has been reached how to share the burden among nations
We explore one exemplary transition pathway that stays within this carbon budget and represents an upper bound of the required technology switch
We focus on the following research questions: What kind of technology transition is necessary to supply German energy demand in transport and heat sectors under a strict carbon budget restraint? How does this translate into installation of new technologies and the transformation of the energy supply? From recent scenarios, it is already clear that electrification will play a major role in the energy transition

Summary

Introduction

One reason is that even though we are comparatively certain about the limitations of the remaining global carbon budget [2], no agreement has been reached how to share the burden among nations. This is due to a large uncertainty of the carbon budget [3], and due to unsolved issues on equity and responsibility [4,5]. Emissions [6] and, has to contribute the main share of avoiding emissions This is even more important in strongly industrialized countries, such as Germany, where the consumption of fossil energy accounts for more than 90% of CO2 emissions [7]. There are different views on key options and development paths for this, which have been and are being presented in numerous scenario-based studies and modeling (see, e.g., [10])

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion