A participatory methodology for future scenario analysis of sub-national water and sanitation access: case study of Kisumu, Kenya

Heather D Price,Lorna G Okotto,Joseph Okotto-Okotto,Steve Pedley,Jim Wright

doi:10.1080/02508060.2018.1500343

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study pilots a participatory methodology for sub-national spatial planning of urban and peri-urban water and sanitation services. Three groups of key informants were presented with evidence on national historic and future service provision trajectories and asked to map water and sanitation access in the city of Kisumu, Kenya, by 2030, assuming current trends continue. Comparison of the groups’ outputs suggests greater certainty among participants regarding service access in Kisumu’s urban core compared to peri-urban areas. We discuss extensions to this preliminary methodology, including the potential benefits of its application to Kenya’s rapidly expanding small towns as suggested by participants.

Highlights

The long-term sustainability of urban water supplies is a strategic concern in many countries (UN-Habitat, 2016), given the pressures on water service providers arising from rapid urbanization, climate change, and the growing demands on both surface and groundwater resources, from agriculture (Hoekstra, Mekonnen, Chapagain, Mathews, & Richter, 2012)
One study examined the water sources supplying piped systems in 70 African urban areas in the 1970s and again in the 1990s and found that the urban water supply footprint expanded during this period, with water supplies increasingly being drawn from more distant rural areas by the 1990s (Showers, 2002)
The Kenyan framework for delivering water and sanitation services was recently revised through the 2016 Kenya Water Act (Figure 1)

Summary

Introduction

The long-term sustainability of urban water supplies is a strategic concern in many countries (UN-Habitat, 2016), given the pressures on water service providers arising from rapid urbanization, climate change, and the growing demands on both surface and groundwater resources, from agriculture (Hoekstra, Mekonnen, Chapagain, Mathews, & Richter, 2012). To provide a basis for long-term planning of urban water and sanitation services, both modelling approaches and scenario planning have been used, at the continental or global scale. One model combining demographic change scenarios via gridded population surfaces with climate and land-use change scenarios for developingcountry cities estimated that the urban population in areas of perennial water shortage would grow from 150 million to almost 1 billion by 2050 (McDonald et al, 2011).

Methods

Results

Conclusion