A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

Abstract

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).