Abstract
This paper applies a combination of factor analysis and causal inference techniques to refine a partial model of national political systems and international behavior. The model, which is a revision and extension of one used as 'background assumptions' in an Inter-Nation Simulation at Northwestern University (1960), contains such variables as international trade and agreements (both military and economic), national economic and military capabilities, and several political system variables such as the probability of revolution; an earlier version of this model is reported in the Journal of Peace Research, No. 3, 1969. Data for the study are circa 1955-1957, cover 64 nations, and were obtained from the Dimensionality of Nations Project file (now at the University of Hawaii), to which the author contributed. Some twenty- four interlocking causal assumptions are settled upon as sufficient explanation for the matrix of correlations generated by the data.
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