Abstract

The traffic-engineering methods of planning based on the predict-and-provide principle have self-enforcing effects of induced traffic and an unhealthy environment for humans as well as for the planet. The paper aims to demonstrate that such methods keep cities stuck in a sort of path dependency with transport technologies and urban environment and to find evidence that something is changing in theory, trends, and practice. A systematic and extensive literature review has been used to identify and understand the problems, to recognise the changes taking place, and to examine the solutions. The main findings are the causes of how these problems could have happened and continue to do so regardless of the huge negative effects and the recognition that a paradigm shift is emerging as the sum of methods and achievements developed by the community of academics, experts, practitioners, policymakers, and urban communities. The findings can have practical, effective implications as the determinants of a new transport policy paradigm that shows the way out of the trap of path dependency. The originality of the approach lies in having expanded and applied the concept of anomalies of the theory to the adverse effects of technologies and the mismatch between people and the modern urban environment. The new paradigm is already showing its practical effectiveness in solving real problems by adapting cities and technologies to human nature and developing a more holistic human-centric planning method.

Highlights

  • A scientific paradigm is not the current theory, but an entire worldview; it refers to the network of conceptual, theoretical, and methodological commitments shared by a scientific community in a given field

  • Some originate from planning theory and, in agreement with Kuhn, are called anomalies; others are the result of transport technologies that produce adverse side effects on the health of humans and the planet; still others are the result of an evolutionary mismatch deriving from the inability of human beings to adapt to rapid changes in the urban environment

  • The conventional planning method of predict and provide keeps cities stuck in a sort of path dependency where people are attracted to certain aspects of modern urban life, namely, sedentary behaviour and travelling by car, by their genetic heritage

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Summary

Introduction

The enthusiasm for the new transport mode was lost when the application of the paradigm showed the first anomalies, mainly the side effects of new road infrastructures: induced demand, urban sprawl, increasing travel distance, more congestion. These were anomalies, unintended consequences, or violations of expectations that attracted the increasing attention of researchers, practitioners, and decision makers. Some originate from planning theory and, in agreement with Kuhn, are called anomalies; others are the result of transport technologies that produce adverse side effects on the health of humans and the planet; still others are the result of an evolutionary mismatch deriving from the inability of human beings to adapt to rapid changes in the urban environment. The main result is a transition to sustainable urban transport achieved by increasing the quality of urban life and reducing dependence on automobiles

Method
The Anomalies of the Conventional Paradigm
Adverse
Change in by COsector, by sector, 2010–2020
Evolutionary Mismatch of People
Preferences
The Car Has Peaked
The Demographic Effects
The Return of the Bike
Digital Transformation
Mobility in the Time of Coronavirus
The Innovation of the Urban Interventions
Achievements as Elements of a Paradigm Shift
City of Neighbourhoods
Transform the Roads
Circular Economy and Logistics
Demand Management
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
Road Safety
More-Human Decision Making
Accessibility Planning for Sustainability
Participatory Planning
Policy Paradigm
Findings
Conclusions
Full Text
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