A Panel Data Analysis Of The Lucas Hypothesis

Abstract

In this study we have attempted to verify one of the implications of the Lucas (1973) hypothesis using two-digit industry-level panel data for the U.S. Manufacturing Sector. The hypothesis states that the higher the nominal demand volatility, the lower will be the impact of nominal changes on real variables. Unlike other studies, we use disaggregated panel data for nineteen industries, which are scattered throughout the country, and are subject to the same fiscal and monetary shocks. Another unique feature of this study is the use of price level data at the two-digit industry-level. As opposed to the use of overall price level data, which is common in the literature, we make use of the price level data at the two-digit industry-level. The results of our study support the Lucas hypothesis. Industries with low relative demand volatility transmit the effects of nominal demand shocks exclusively to output and industries with high relative volatility pass on the shocks directly to prices. Finally, we tested for the relation between the real impact of the nominal aggregate disturbances and the relative volatility of industry demands. Our results show strong negative relation between them. That is, the higher the nominal demand volatility facing an industry, the less its impact would be on real output.