Abstract
Sustained and coordinated social action is needed to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Health practitioners and governments around the world have issued recommendations and mandates designed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 by influencing the social behaviors of the general public. Why and when are some people unwilling to take action to protect themselves and others from the effects of this public health crisis? We find that belief in COVID-19 consensus information (by the self or perceptions of scientists’ beliefs), are consequential predictors of COVID-19 mitigation behaviors. Importantly, support for COVID-19 conspiracy theories predicted decreased, whereas perceived understanding of COVID-19 predicted increased, belief in COVID-19 consensus information. We also implemented an Illusion of Explanatory depth paradigm, an approach to examining knowledge overestimation shown to reduce confidence in one’s understanding of complex phenomena. By requiring participants to elaborate upon COVID-19 conspiracies, we experimentally increased understanding of these theories, which led, in turn, to ironic increases in support for the conspiracy theories and undermined perceived understanding of COVID-19 information for a notable portion of our participants. Together, our results suggest that attention given to COVID-19 conspiracies may be misguided; describing or explaining the existence of COVID-19 conspiracies may ironically increase support for these accounts and undermine knowledge about and willingness to engage in COVID-19 mitigation.
Highlights
Sustained and coordinated social action is needed to combat the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; Van Bavel et al, 2020), a pandemic that has claimed the lives of millions and will continue to threaten the safety and well-being of many more in the foreseeable future (World Health Organization, 2020a)
We examined whether changes post-IOED in understanding of COVID-19 conspiracy theories correlated with W1 to W2 change in perceptions of one’s own or scientists’ understanding of consensus COVID-19 information, separately
Results indicate that an increase post-IOED in perceived understanding of COVID-19 conspiracies correlated with significantly reduced perceived understanding of consensus COVID-19 information from W1 to W2 (b −0.21, CI 95% (−0.33, −0.10), p < 0.001)
Summary
Sustained and coordinated social action is needed to combat the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; Van Bavel et al, 2020), a pandemic that has claimed the lives of millions and will continue to threaten the safety and well-being of many more in the foreseeable future (World Health Organization, 2020a). Medical professionals, and governments around the world have issued recommendations and mandates designed to reduce the transmission of COVID19 by influencing the social behaviors of the general public (Centers for Disease Control, 2020; Götz et al, 2020). These initiatives—such as frequent handwashing, the use of protective facemasks, and social distancing—have been effective at slowing the transmission of the virus and reducing the likelihood of illness (Anderson et al, 2020; Cohen and Corey, 2020; Haushofer and Metcalf, 2020; Prather et al, 2020). Why and when are some people unwilling to take action to protect themselves and others from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic? With the widespread dissemination of inaccurate or unreliable information about COVID-19 (Brennen et al, 2020), where conspiracy theories run amok (Miller, 2020), and prominent political leaders misrepresent the severity of the pandemic and the efficacy of purported treatments (Sharma et al, 2017; Woodward, 2020), understanding how individuals acquire and use knowledge about COVID-19 is of central importance to containing its spread
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