A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

Abstract

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO x at the model's upper boundary. In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.