A novel wind power deterministic and interval prediction framework based on the critic weight method, improved northern goshawk optimization, and kernel density estimation

Abstract

Wind power prediction holds significant importance for the stable operation of power systems and the enhancement of energy utilization efficiency. Interval prediction, capable of providing more uncertain information, has garnered widespread attention. In this study we have designed a hybrid prediction framework for both deterministic and interval prediction. Initially, the original wind power data undergo cleaning using the quartile method and the fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. This approach not only eliminates scattered outliers but also identifies concentrated outliers more effectively. Subsequently, five distinct single prediction models were employed for point predictions. The critic weight method was applied to yield point forecasting results with higher prediction accuracy. Nonparametric kernel density estimation (KDE) and normal distribution (ND) were incorporated to calculate the prediction interval (PI) under varying confidence levels. Finally, an improved northern goshawk optimization (INGO) algorithm was proposed, integrating three enhancement methods: levy flight, sinusoidal mapping, and a reverse learning strategy. This optimization aims to fine-tune the weight coefficients of the aforementioned two interval prediction methods. The resulting PI overcomes the limitations of a single-interval prediction model. To effectively demonstrate the forecasting performance of the proposed prediction framework, two datasets from a wind turbine in northwest China were selected for simulation verification. In deterministic prediction, the designed hybrid forecast model demonstrates a reduction in root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) by 8.5%, 16.98%, and 11.49%, respectively, compared to other single prediction models. In interval prediction, the prediction interval coverage probability (PICP) is enhanced, while the prediction interval normalized average width (PINAW) is effectively reduced. The designed interval prediction model can reduce the comprehensive evaluation index coverage width-based criterion (CWC) by 10.51%, 9.62%, and 12.95% on average at 95%, 90%, and 80% confidence levels, respectively. Simulation results verified the validity and feasibility of the proposed prediction framework.