A Novel Virus Propagation Mathematical Model for Infectious Diseases

Abstract

Although the virus trail is invisible, it may have a significant impact both on the human health as well as on the social economy. Facing the complex and various virus, how to control the spread of the infectious diseases becomes a hot topic. With the development of the virus, the classical mathematics propagation models may not be available to analyze the new kinds of the infectious diseases. In this paper, a novel virus propagation model, i.e. the healthy-suspected-infectious-recovered (HSIR) model, is proposed by beneficially considering the influence imposed by the people in suspected state. Moreover, two key concepts, namely the epidemic threshold and the basic reproduction number (BRN) are defined, which can be used to demonstrate the propagation trend of the infectious diseases. Finally, extensive simulation results verify the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed HSIR model.