A novel term-structure-based Heston model for implied volatility surface

Abstract

It remains a challenge for existing financial models to accurately capture the shapes of implied volatility (IV) of options with all maturities simultaneously. Inspired by Chen et al.’s empirical finding, ‘the shorter the option expiry, the higher the IV is’, we propose a novel and simple approach to solve this challenge, by introducing a term-structure-based correction (i.e. an exponential increase function of the options expiry) to the volatility of volatility (vol–vol) term of the classical Heston stochastic volatility model. We derive an approximate formula for the IV under the corrected model with the perturbation method and further apply the formula to predict the IVs of options written on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF. Numerical experiments and empirical results show that the introduction of a term-structure-based correction function surely overcomes the deficiency of the classical Heston model in capturing the short-term IVs, thus improving notably its performance of IV forecasting.