A novel statistical tolerance analysis method for assembled parts

Abstract

Tolerance analysis of an assembly is an important issue for mechanical design. Among various tolerance analysis methods, statistical analysis is the most commonly employed method. However, the conventional statistical tolerance method is often based on the normal distribution. It fails to predict the resultant tolerance of an assembly of parts with non-normal distributions. In this paper, a novel method based on statistical moments is proposed. Tolerance distributions of parts are first transferred into statistical moments that are then used for computing tolerance stack-up. The computed moments, particularly the variance, the skewness and the kurtosis, are then mapped back to probability distributions in order to calculate the resultant tolerance of the assembly. The proposed method can be used to analyse the resultant tolerance specification for non-normal distributions with different skewness and kurtosis. Simulated results showed that tail coefficients of different distributions with the same kurtosis are close to each other for normalised probabilities between −3 and 3. That is, the tail coefficients of a statistical distribution can be predicted by the coefficients of skewness and kurtosis. Two examples are illustrated in the paper to demonstrate the proposed method. The predicted resultant tolerances of the two examples are only 0.5% and 1.5% differences compared with that by the Monte Carlo simulation for 1,000,000 samples. The proposed method is much faster in computation with higher accuracy than conventional statistical tolerance methods. The merit of the proposed method is that the computation is fast and comparatively accurate for both symmetrical and unsymmetrical distributions, particularly when the required probability is between ±2σ and ±3σ.