A novel stacked generalization ensemble-based hybrid LGBM-XGB-MLP model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

This paper proposes an effective computing framework for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF). The proposed technique copes with the stochastic variations of the load demand using a stacked generalization approach. This approach combines three models, namely, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting machine (XGB), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The inner mechanism of Stacked XGB-LGBM-MLP model consists of generating a meta-data from XGB and LGBM models to compute the final predictions using MLP network. The performance of the proposed Stacked XGB-LGBM-MLP model is validated using two datasets from different locations: Malaysia and New England. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) A novel stacking ensemble-based algorithm is proposed; 2) An effective STLF technique is introduced; 3) A critical multi-study analysis for hyperparameter optimization with five techniques is comprehensively performed; 4) A performance comparative study using two datasets and reference models is conducted. Several case studies have been carried out to prove the performance superiority of the proposed model compared to both existing benchmark techniques and hybrid models.