A Novel Sequence-to-Sequence-Based Deep Learning Model for Multistep Load Forecasting.

Abstract

Load forecasting is critical to the task of energy management in power systems, for example, balancing supply and demand and minimizing energy transaction costs. There are many approaches used for load forecasting such as the support vector regression (SVR), the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and neural networks, but most of these methods focus on single-step load forecasting, whereas multistep load forecasting can provide better insights for optimizing the energy resource allocation and assisting the decision-making process. In this work, a novel sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq)-based deep learning model based on a time series decomposition strategy for multistep load forecasting is proposed. The model consists of a series of basic blocks, each of which includes one encoder and two decoders; and all basic blocks are connected by residuals. In the inner of each basic block, the encoder is realized by temporal convolution network (TCN) for its benefit of parallel computing, and the decoder is implemented by long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to predict and estimate time series. During the forecasting process, each basic block is forecasted individually. The final forecasted result is the aggregation of the predicted results in all basic blocks. Several cases within multiple real-world datasets are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves the best accuracy compared with several benchmark models.