A novel scoring system to predict short-term mortality after living donor liver transplantation for acute liver failure

Abstract

Liver transplantation is often the only lifesaving option for acute liver failure (ALF); however, the predictors of short-term mortality (death within one year) after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for ALF have yet to be defined. We retrospectively collected patients ≥18 years old who underwent LDLT for ALF between 2010 and 2020 at 35 centers in Asia. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the clinical variables related to short-term mortality and establish a novel scoring system. The Kaplan–Meier method was performed to explore the association between the score and overall survival. Of 339 recipients, 46 (13.6%) died within one year after LDLT. Multivariate analyses revealed four independent risk factors of death: use of vasopressors or mechanical ventilation, higher model for end-stage liver disease score, and lower graft-to-recipient weight ratio. The internally validated c-statistic of the short-term mortality after transplant (SMT) score derived from these four variables was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74–0.87). The SMT score successfully stratified recipients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with 1-year overall survival rates of 96%, 80%, and 50%, respectively. In conclusion, our novel SMT score based on four predictors will guide ALF recipient and living donor selection.