A novel risk analysis method for hazardous cargo operations at port integrating the HFLC model and DEMATEL method

Abstract

The development of maritime chemical and industrial trade has led to the large-scale hazardous cargo operations at port, making it essential to conduct risk analysis to analyze the risk factors affecting port safety and prevent the occurrence of accident. However, the complex interrelationships among risk factors in hazardous cargo operations and the uncertainties in the risk analysis process pose significant challenges to the effectiveness of risk analysis results. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated risk analysis method for hazardous cargo operations at port based on the hesitant fuzzy linguistic cloud (HFLC) model and the DEMATEL method. Firstly, 20 risks related to hazardous cargo operations are determined based on accident analysis and previous literatures. The HFLC model is then applied to characterize the linguistic judgements with uncertainty provided by the experts on the different risk factors. Next, the DEMATEL method is extended to the HFLC environment and utilized to calculate the centrality degree and causality degree of different risk factors in the form of HFLC. Finally, ten factors for cause group and effect group are identified separately, and the critical influence relationships between the factors are determined. This study can assist port managers in mitigating the risks of hazardous cargo operations at port, and can also serve as a crucial basis for the formulation of management decision-making and emergency response strategy.