A novel real-time model for predicting acute kidney injury in critically ill patients within 12 hours.

Abstract

A major challenge in prevention and early treatment of acute kidney injury (AKI) is the lack of high-performance predictors in critically ill patients. Therefore, we innovatively constructed U-AKIpredTM for predicting AKI in critically ill patients within 12h of panel measurement. The prospective cohort study included 680 patients in the training set and 249 patients in the validation set. After performing inclusion and exclusion criteria, 417 patients were enrolled in the training set and 164 patients were enrolled in the validation set finally. AKI was diagnosed by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. Twelve urinary kidney injury biomarkers (mALB, IgG, TRF, α1MG, NAG, NGAL, KIM-1, L-FABP, TIMP2, IGFBP7, CAF22 and IL-18) exhibited good predictive performance for AKI within 12h in critically ill patients. U-AKIpredTM, combined with three crucial biomarkers (α1MG, L-FABP and IGFBP7) by multivariate logistic regression analysis, exhibited better predictive performance for AKI in critically ill patients within 12h than the other twelve kidney injury biomarkers. The area under the curve (AUC) of the U-AKIpredTM, as a predictor of AKI within 12h, was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.771-0.833, P<0.001) in the training set and 0.844 (95% CI: 0.792-0.896, P<0.001) in validation cohort. A nomogram based on the results of the training and validation sets of U-AKIpredTM was developed which showed optimal predictive performance for AKI. The fitting effect and prediction accuracy of U-AKIpredTM was evaluated by multiple statistical indicators. To provide a more flexible predictive tool, the dynamic nomogram (https://www.xsmartanalysis.com/model/U-AKIpredTM) was constructed using a web-calculator. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and a clinical impact curve were used to reveal that U-AKIpredTM with the three crucial biomarkers had a higher net benefit than these twelve kidney injury biomarkers respectively. The net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were used to improve the significant risk reclassification of AKI compared with the 12 kidney injury biomarkers. The predictive efficiency of U-AKIpredTM was better than the NephroCheck® when testing for AKI and severe AKI. U-AKIpredTM is an excellent predictive model of AKI in critically ill patients within 12h and would assist clinicians in identifying those at high risk of AKI.