Abstract
In project planning, risk assessment method plays vital role. Poorly assessed project risks cause degeneration at project cost, project completion time, and project output quality and project scope. Each project activity risk influence these project success factors. Implementation performance of a project activity triggers or smooth of its successor’s activity risks. Because of this; employing robust and detailed risk assessment methods is important to reach those project goals. In project risk assessment literature, when it is investigated, it is noticed that risk assessment and evaluation methods are only developed at whole project level. Actually, they are not comprehensive enough to evaluate the project risks at activity level. Besides that traditional risk assessment methods such as risk matrix does not able analyze project risk quantitatively. With this motivation, main aim of this study is developing a multi-criteria based decision method which prioritizing project risks at activity level. AHP and TOPSIS method are combined to developed novel method. In this hybrid method, Constructing AHP model is to prioritize work packages with respect to relative importance of project time, project output quality and project cost. Broken down structure of these work packages are used as input for weighted criteria for TOPSIS method. In second layer of this decision method, TOPSIS model is used for prioritizing predetermined activity risks according weighted project work packages success criteria. In the application of this method, a case study approach is followed. In this sense, “Global Furniture Ltd.” which is established in Istanbul, Turkey is chosen as a case to apply newly developed model. Results showed that application of AHP-Stochastic TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm provides a platform that project risks could be analyzed as quantitative and also at project activity level.
Highlights
In project risk management process, one of the most important issues is project risk assessment
Their study implies that project stakeholders rely on project risk management when they are persuaded on vale creation [1]
AHP give %64 importance grade to it. When it comes to pricing and budgeting phase; results of AHP represents that risks of this phase has second greatest importance because of economic and financial volatility in both Bulgaria and Turkey
Summary
In project risk management process, one of the most important issues is project risk assessment. Willumsen et al (2019) presents a literature review and an empirical study on “Value creation through project risk management”. This empirical study consists of stakeholders interviews and quantitative analysis of them. As project budgets and resources are always limited, managers have to determine which resources (financial, human resource or technical) should be allocated to which possible risk events. It requires predicting probability and possible impacts of project risks to prioritize them.
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