A Novel Prognostic Score Based on Multiple Quantitative Parameters of Chest CT for Patients with Synchronous Multiple Primary Lung Cancer: Is Solid Component Size a Better Prognostic Indicator?

Abstract

There is no simple and definitive way to predict the prognosis of synchronous multiple primary lung cancer (SMPLC). In this study, we developed a clinical prognostic score for predicting the survival of patients with SMPLC. This study included 206 patients with SMPLC between 2011 and 2020 at three hospitals. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff values for the quantitative chest computed tomography (CT) parameters. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was carried out to identify independent prognostic factors for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve was analyzed to evaluate the prognostic performance. A CT-based prognostic score (CTPS) comprising six chest CT parameters was developed. Compared with T stage, CTPS had a higher prediction accuracy for OS and DFS. All C-indices of the model reached a satisfactory level in both the development and validation cohorts. Significant differences in the OS and DFS curves were observed when the patients were stratified into different risk groups. The high-risk group (CTPS of 5-6) had poorer survival than the low-risk group (CTPS of 0-4). The developed CTPS and the corresponding risk stratification system are valid for predicting the survival of patients with SMPLC.