A novel prediction model for the probability of aggressive behavior in patients with mood disorders: Based on a cohort study

Abstract

BackgroundAccurately predicting the probability of aggressive behavior is crucial for guiding early intervention in patients with mood disorders. MethodsCox stepwise regression was conducted to identify potential influencing factors. Nomogram prediction models were constructed to predict the probabilities of aggressive behavior in patients with mood disorders, and their performance was assessed using consistency index (C-index) and calibration plots. ResultsResearch findings on 321 patients with mood disorders indicated that being older (HR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.98), single (HR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.02–0.68), having children (one child, HR = 0.07, 95%CI: 0.01–0.87; more than one child, HR = 0.33, 95%CI: 0.04–2.48), living in dormitory (HR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.08–0.77), non-student (employee, HR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.07–0.88; non-employee, HR = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.02–0.35), and higher scores in subjective support (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82–0.99) were protective factors. On the contrary, minorities (HR = 5.26, 95% CI: 1.23–22.48), living alone (HR = 4.37, 95% CI: 1.60–11.94), having suicide history (HR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.06–5.95), and having higher scores in EPQ-E (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00–1.08) and EPQ-P (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00–1.07) were identified as independent risk factors for aggressive behavior in patients with mood disorders. The nomogram prediction model demonstrated high discrimination and goodness-of-fit. ConclusionsA novel nomogram prediction model for the probability of aggressive behavior in patients with mood disorders was developed, effective in identifying at-risk populations and offering valuable insights for early intervention and proactive measures.