A novel potential cause of extreme precipitation in the northwest China

Abstract

The northwest China is a climate change-sensitive and ecologically vulnerable area. Under the backdrop of global warming, this region exhibits clear characteristics of warming and wetting. In recent years, the causes of climate change in the northwest China has become a widely-focused topic. Previous research has mainly attributed the increase in precipitation to changes in the westerly belt and enhanced local convective activity caused by global warming. South Asia, beside the Tibetan Plateau from the northwest China, is one of the regions with the fastest growth in global atmospheric pollutant emissions. This study utilizes reanalysis data such as ERA5 and MERRA-2. Statistical methods, including Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Singular Value Decomposition analysis, are employed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of South Asian aerosols, extreme precipitation in the northwest China, and the correlation between the two. The study reveals the existence of two key aerosol-precipitation response areas. Synthetic analysis of the meteorological elements of the response events in both regions is conducted to explore the possible physical mechanisms behind the correlation between South Asian aerosols and precipitation in the northwest China. The result of this study is to provide a new perspective on the causes of extreme precipitation in the arid region of northwest China.