A Novel Picture Fuzzy Set-Based Decision Approach for Consumer Trust Project Risk Assessment

Abstract

Consumer trust projects have formed as a novel business idea to achieve industrial transformation and upgrade Chinese trust companies (consumer trust projects), and it is of great significance to identify risks and evaluate their ranking order based on risk priorities. Considering the complexity and uncertainty brought by the multiple stages and multiple subjects, an innovative decision system framework was proposed, integrating criteria interaction through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) and the decision-making method additive ratio assessment (ARAS) based on prospect theory (PT) under a picture fuzzy environment. The proposed decision system framework not only determines the weights of criteria by considering the correlation and conflict among them but also determines the risk priority and ranking order by considering the bounded rationality of decision makers (DMs). Subsequently, to demonstrate the efficiency and practicability of the proposed framework, this paper constructs a consumer trust project risk evaluation model that includes a risk evaluation index system consisting of twenty-two risk factors and four relevant criteria in a case study. Then, the established model is used in a specific consumer trust project to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework. After that, a sensitivity discussion and a comparative analysis are provided to demonstrate the introduced methodology’s feasibility and necessity. The risk priority and ranking order calculated by the framework will give a reference for risk management of consumer trust projects.