A novel nomogram for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute type A aortic dissection surgery: a retrospective study investigating the impact of ventilation duration on postoperative outcomes

Abstract

Objective Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a devastating cardiovascular disease with extraordinary morbidity and mortality. Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a common complication following ATAAD surgery, leading to adverse outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between mechanical ventilation time (MVT) and prognosis and to devise a nomogram for predicting PMV after ATAAD surgery. Methods This retrospective study enrolled 1049 ATAAD patients from 2011 to 2019. Subgroups were divided into < 12 h, 12 h to < 24 h, 24 h to < 48 h, 48 h to < 72 h, and ≥ 72 h according to MVT. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared among the groups. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we investigated the relationship between each stratification of MVT and mortality. A nomogram was constructed based on the refined multivariable logistic regression model for predicting PMV. Results The total mortality was 11.8% (124/1049). The results showed that the groups with MVT 48 h to < 72 h and ≥ 72 h had significantly higher operative mortality compared to other MVT categories. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MVT ≥72 h was significantly associated with higher short-term mortality. Thus, a nomogram was presented to elucidate the association between PMV (MVT ≥72 h) and risk factors including advanced age, preoperative cerebral ischemia, ascending aorta replacement, concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), longer cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), and large-volume intraoperative fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion. The nomogram exhibited strong predictive performance upon validation. Conclusions Safely extubating patients within 72 h after ATAAD surgery is crucial for achieving favorable outcomes. The developed and validated nomogram provides a valuable tool for predicting PMV and optimizing postoperative care to improve patient prognosis. This novel nomogram has the potential to guide clinical decision-making and resource allocation in the management of ATAAD patients.