A novel nomogram based on the hematological prognosis risk scoring system can predict the overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram based on a hematological prognostic risk scoring system to predict the overall survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients diagnosed with unresectable HCC undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) in 2012-2016 and 2017-2018 were included in the development set and validation set, respectively. The clinical outcome was overall survival (OS). The LASSO regression analysis was used to construct a hematological prognostic risk scoring system (HPR) by using the 18 hematological markers of patients in the development set. Combining the features of oncology on the basis of HPR to construct a nomogram for OS. In the development set and validation sets, the C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the prediction performance of the nomogram. Multiple markers of immunity, coagulation, liver function, and nutrition, including red blood cell distribution width-coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), platelet (PLT), aspartate transferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and fibrinogen (Fib), construct the HPR. HPR was an independent risk factor for OS in patients with HCC. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.712-0.749) and 0.696 (95% CI 0.668-0.725) in the development set and the validation set, respectively. HPR was a complement to the clinical features of patients with unresectable HCC. The nomogram based on HPR proved to be a practical and effective method for prognosticating HCC patients who undergo TACE.