A novel multi-source information fusion method for emergency spatial resilience assessment based on Dempster-Shafer theory

Abstract

In the midst of today's intricate and ever-changing natural and social landscape, this study is committed to proposing a novel multi-source information fusion method for assessing the spatial resilience of urban emergency evacuation and rescue. Its overarching aim is to uncover latent challenges and contribute to the enhancement of a city's capacity to respond to emergencies. To achieve this, we have devised a comprehensive assessment indicator system, capable of not only quantifying a city's spatial resilience but also offering indispensable guidance for urban emergency evacuation and rescue spatial planning. Furthermore, we have introduced an innovative evaluation methodology framework. This framework includes the establishment of the basic probability assignment (BPA) model, a pioneering method for generating BPA for observed values, and the novel application of hierarchical weighting and fusion techniques. By extending the Dempster-Shafer theory, we have not only enhanced the method's ability to express and integrate uncertain information but also significantly improved the precision of the evaluation. Ultimately, we conducted a quantitative assessment using Shenzhen, China, as a case study, identifying existing issues and proposing highly-targeted improvement strategies. These research findings not only provide robust support for the augmentation of urban emergency capabilities in Shenzhen but also offer pioneering insights for the quantitative assessment and advancement of emergency spatial resilience in cities across the globe.